1 00:00:05,420 --> 00:00:03,740 okay then well hello everybody and 2 00:00:07,460 --> 00:00:05,430 welcome again to the University of 3 00:00:11,270 --> 00:00:07,470 Washington astrobiology seminar series 4 00:00:14,030 --> 00:00:11,280 for this spring order our guest today is 5 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:14,040 Professor Siegfried Frank from Potsdam 6 00:00:20,170 --> 00:00:18,210 University and Siegfried has a very long 7 00:00:22,550 --> 00:00:20,180 history in both physics and geophysics 8 00:00:24,980 --> 00:00:22,560 he did his physics degree in the 9 00:00:28,550 --> 00:00:24,990 University of Leipzig and got his PhD in 10 00:00:30,500 --> 00:00:28,560 1978 he then said what he describes to 11 00:00:32,630 --> 00:00:30,510 me as a second PhD because this is 12 00:00:35,870 --> 00:00:32,640 required in the German system and 13 00:00:37,639 --> 00:00:35,880 eventually became a lecturer in 1984 at 14 00:00:39,590 --> 00:00:37,649 the Central Institute for physics of the 15 00:00:42,979 --> 00:00:39,600 earth in Potsdam after completing his 16 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:42,989 second PhD in 1989 he was appointed as a 17 00:00:48,139 --> 00:00:44,850 professor of geology they are sorry 18 00:00:49,819 --> 00:00:48,149 geophysics and since 1997 he has worked 19 00:00:52,430 --> 00:00:49,829 at the Potsdam Institute for climate 20 00:00:55,430 --> 00:00:52,440 impact research in the field of Earth 21 00:00:57,170 --> 00:00:55,440 system analysis focusing on planetology 22 00:00:59,540 --> 00:00:57,180 and astrobiology with a particular 23 00:01:01,720 --> 00:00:59,550 interest in habitability and long-term 24 00:01:05,210 --> 00:01:01,730 habitability of terrestrial planets 25 00:01:07,130 --> 00:01:05,220 since 2004 he has been the professor of 26 00:01:09,289 --> 00:01:07,140 coevolution of the geosphere and 27 00:01:11,359 --> 00:01:09,299 biosphere at Potsdam University and 28 00:01:13,370 --> 00:01:11,369 today he will be talking to us about 29 00:01:15,230 --> 00:01:13,380 Earth system analysis and its 30 00:01:24,020 --> 00:01:15,240 applications to astrobiology so 31 00:01:26,960 --> 00:01:24,030 Siegfried is a gentleman yes I want the 32 00:01:29,780 --> 00:01:26,970 same wiki for inviting me to see Aaron 33 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:29,790 and to help the possibility to give a 34 00:01:35,780 --> 00:01:33,210 talk so title of my talk was already 35 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:35,790 announced I must say the title is not 36 00:01:43,719 --> 00:01:39,770 suspect to expect our crew lawyers and 37 00:01:47,149 --> 00:01:43,729 today we have said the day of zeros and 38 00:01:50,060 --> 00:01:47,159 I prefer that I should have used the 39 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:50,070 title so search for second else at the 40 00:01:55,530 --> 00:01:51,850 day of zeros 41 00:01:59,280 --> 00:01:55,540 but this is it's not so hot very good 42 00:02:01,410 --> 00:01:59,290 but it describes a little bit so topic I 43 00:02:05,430 --> 00:02:01,420 want to speak about namely I have two 44 00:02:07,649 --> 00:02:05,440 parts first to investigate our planet 45 00:02:10,290 --> 00:02:07,659 Earth and the long term evolution of co 46 00:02:13,500 --> 00:02:10,300 biosphere the terms it was introduced by 47 00:02:15,660 --> 00:02:13,510 a gallon at ski so famous Roger of 48 00:02:18,930 --> 00:02:15,670 scientists and the second guilds was 49 00:02:23,970 --> 00:02:18,940 habitability and extrasolar planets so I 50 00:02:26,850 --> 00:02:23,980 have to pause next remark is a following 51 00:02:29,780 --> 00:02:26,860 that after this fits our discussion with 52 00:02:33,030 --> 00:02:29,790 your students and fiscal sponsor 53 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:33,040 tf7 maybe my talk is too simple but 54 00:02:38,420 --> 00:02:35,410 really it told me that I should have a 55 00:02:41,610 --> 00:02:38,430 level for all students and so I hope 56 00:02:43,699 --> 00:02:41,620 this will not be the situations that you 57 00:02:46,949 --> 00:02:43,709 know all about is the Dyson's 58 00:02:53,940 --> 00:02:46,959 nevertheless I want to start with the 59 00:02:56,699 --> 00:02:53,950 next figure we do occur system analysis 60 00:03:00,330 --> 00:02:56,709 and Earth system analysis means to 61 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:00,340 investigate earth as a system and if we 62 00:03:06,210 --> 00:03:03,250 do this that's a long time scales we 63 00:03:09,509 --> 00:03:06,220 investigate SAT us as a system of cell 64 00:03:12,930 --> 00:03:09,519 components and these components are for 65 00:03:17,009 --> 00:03:12,940 example the the deep interior of the 66 00:03:22,620 --> 00:03:17,019 girls oceanic crust the continental 67 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:22,630 crust Z atmosphere see hydrosphere and 68 00:03:28,740 --> 00:03:26,290 of course the biosphere and in the 69 00:03:31,770 --> 00:03:28,750 framework of some modeling we try to 70 00:03:35,699 --> 00:03:31,780 investigate houses components develop 71 00:03:37,949 --> 00:03:35,709 under his okok external forcing and it's 72 00:03:41,430 --> 00:03:37,959 a case of the earth since external 73 00:03:45,509 --> 00:03:41,440 forcing is a insulation the radiation 74 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:45,519 from the Sun changes over time as we 75 00:03:50,190 --> 00:03:47,410 know from the faint young Sun gumdrops 76 00:03:55,259 --> 00:03:50,200 Paul it's a case of extrasolar planets 77 00:04:00,370 --> 00:03:55,269 we have another central star and to do 78 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:04,150 to investigate a process that is 79 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:07,730 inversed in this in the action between 80 00:04:15,730 --> 00:04:12,170 central star and planet and this is a 81 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:15,740 so-called global carbon cycle the global 82 00:04:20,470 --> 00:04:18,010 carbon cycle you know in how institute 83 00:04:22,690 --> 00:04:20,480 scientists investigate other the carpet 84 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:22,700 cider but Charlotte I'm still for 85 00:04:27,940 --> 00:04:24,770 example is a car one-sided between a 86 00:04:29,140 --> 00:04:27,950 biosphere in the atmosphere the biasing 87 00:04:32,650 --> 00:04:29,150 of takes carbon from the atmosphere 88 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:32,660 makes photosynthesis and creates biomass 89 00:04:40,990 --> 00:04:36,890 let's say of the 100 years such a tree 90 00:04:43,150 --> 00:04:41,000 can die and co2 goes back to the 91 00:04:45,790 --> 00:04:43,160 atmospheres is also a compensator but 92 00:04:48,670 --> 00:04:45,800 our carbon cycle has a very very long 93 00:04:51,550 --> 00:04:48,680 scale it describes the carbon in the 94 00:04:55,090 --> 00:04:51,560 atmosphere how it takes a greenhouse 95 00:04:59,020 --> 00:04:55,100 effect and it describes supposes of 96 00:05:01,530 --> 00:04:59,030 Vaseline that means co2 is dissolved in 97 00:05:05,020 --> 00:05:01,540 rain drops as Kaepernick passage and 98 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:05,030 this carbonic acid in the eights with 99 00:05:10,870 --> 00:05:07,690 the silicates from the continents and 100 00:05:12,730 --> 00:05:10,880 was in this chemical reaction we have 101 00:05:16,390 --> 00:05:12,740 some products that are produced by a 102 00:05:18,930 --> 00:05:16,400 small rivers and larger rivers to 103 00:05:22,150 --> 00:05:18,940 deceive and this case carbon is 104 00:05:25,570 --> 00:05:22,160 transported from atmosphere to the ocean 105 00:05:28,270 --> 00:05:25,580 and in the ocean it can make certain 106 00:05:32,190 --> 00:05:28,280 reactions it can zero down the oceanic 107 00:05:36,220 --> 00:05:32,200 crust is transported to subduction zones 108 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:36,230 here we have so-called metamorphic 109 00:05:42,010 --> 00:05:39,890 reactions in about 100 kilometer deaths 110 00:05:46,420 --> 00:05:42,020 in a part of cisco's back to the 111 00:05:49,630 --> 00:05:46,430 shortcut we are big hog or and acidic 112 00:05:52,540 --> 00:05:49,640 world car knows his atmosphere and the 113 00:05:55,180 --> 00:05:52,550 other particles down in the mantle and 114 00:05:58,360 --> 00:05:55,190 it's a framework of plate tectonics it 115 00:06:00,730 --> 00:05:58,370 may come back to the mid-ocean ridges it 116 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:00,740 go again into the so-called surface 117 00:06:08,250 --> 00:06:04,250 reservoirs and this takes very very long 118 00:06:12,530 --> 00:06:08,260 f1 which mark a carbon atom this process 119 00:06:17,070 --> 00:06:12,540 would take about 800 900 million years 120 00:06:21,090 --> 00:06:17,080 but this is a suppressant carbon cycle 121 00:06:24,270 --> 00:06:21,100 and we have some knowledge or also some 122 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:24,280 special population houses power cycle 123 00:06:29,580 --> 00:06:27,250 was in the past and we know it's a past 124 00:06:33,630 --> 00:06:29,590 according to the failure example docs 125 00:06:36,590 --> 00:06:33,640 cinema no cgt of Sassan was smaller of 126 00:06:40,830 --> 00:06:36,600 about 25 persons it's a present value 127 00:06:43,290 --> 00:06:40,840 but when it's a framework of system that 128 00:06:46,110 --> 00:06:43,300 was much more co2 in the atmosphere and 129 00:06:49,380 --> 00:06:46,120 the greenhouse effect was about four 130 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:49,390 times the present thing but we know it's 131 00:06:59,190 --> 00:06:53,410 a archaean we had we had no such trees 132 00:07:01,460 --> 00:06:59,200 we had only microorganism so biofilms so 133 00:07:06,420 --> 00:07:01,470 there wasn't another process of soon 134 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:06,430 biogenic part in the system and when she 135 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:08,890 has I the continent ago I was a powered 136 00:07:14,730 --> 00:07:11,410 only ten percent of the present law and 137 00:07:17,790 --> 00:07:14,740 the spreading wage and have spreading 138 00:07:20,550 --> 00:07:17,800 rates have been much larger than today 139 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:20,560 about four times as large shop on the 140 00:07:26,310 --> 00:07:23,170 other hand said mean mando temperature 141 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:26,320 was about 200 degrees higher though 142 00:07:33,450 --> 00:07:29,770 these are values settling oven that we 143 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:33,460 should recover with our other limit but 144 00:07:39,060 --> 00:07:36,130 we we don't not only look into the past 145 00:07:41,210 --> 00:07:39,070 but also into the future surely why was 146 00:07:45,170 --> 00:07:41,220 the spreading way to larger in the past 147 00:07:48,810 --> 00:07:45,180 because he the earth was much hotter and 148 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:48,820 the heat flow was higher and the 149 00:07:56,670 --> 00:07:50,890 spelling late is related to the heat 150 00:08:00,870 --> 00:07:56,680 flow and we can expect the relate or 151 00:08:04,260 --> 00:08:00,880 even happily how will be this coincided 152 00:08:08,940 --> 00:08:04,270 in about 1 million years the luminosity 153 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:08,950 were grown up to about 10,000 100 154 00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:12,850 presently the greenhouse effect maybe 155 00:08:18,390 --> 00:08:15,190 about only ninety percent of the present 156 00:08:21,300 --> 00:08:18,400 value because there's less co2 its 157 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:21,310 atmosphere we don't know what will be in 158 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:24,370 1,000,000 year was a biosphere how will 159 00:08:29,210 --> 00:08:26,650 it look and what type of biosphere will 160 00:08:32,610 --> 00:08:29,220 be sad if seconded escrows was a 161 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:32,620 seven-second rain they will have an era 162 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:37,450 of 40,000 not reciprocated and the mango 163 00:08:45,510 --> 00:08:40,930 temperature would have lower bound for 164 00:08:53,010 --> 00:08:45,520 about 50 degrees Kelvin those this is to 165 00:08:55,650 --> 00:08:53,020 long-term future and now the picture I 166 00:08:59,010 --> 00:08:55,660 showed you was the clothes hamper tiger 167 00:09:02,820 --> 00:08:59,020 in the in the language of geoscientists 168 00:09:06,300 --> 00:09:02,830 few physicists and churches and 169 00:09:08,220 --> 00:09:06,310 monologist but here I have this same 170 00:09:10,680 --> 00:09:08,230 cycle in the language of a mother love 171 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:10,690 and hear of a mathematician it's the 172 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:14,530 same which I just showed us a pic just 173 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:17,890 before here we have is a world box model 174 00:09:26,450 --> 00:09:21,730 there we have six boxes namely a box 175 00:09:30,660 --> 00:09:26,460 atmosphere and ocean continent seafloor 176 00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:30,670 mantle biosphere and you know if 177 00:09:37,770 --> 00:09:34,960 biosphere guys nuts LOL how one was 178 00:09:40,580 --> 00:09:37,780 pegged to the atmosphere in since the 179 00:09:43,890 --> 00:09:40,590 cane but there is a deposition of 180 00:09:46,770 --> 00:09:43,900 organic of the Jews carbon let's add one 181 00:09:51,210 --> 00:09:46,780 person and this is called corrosion and 182 00:09:56,490 --> 00:09:51,220 this is steep resilient organic carbon 183 00:09:59,040 --> 00:09:56,500 so we have six boxes and so carbon cycle 184 00:10:01,230 --> 00:09:59,050 consists of six change of carbon which 185 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:01,240 means these boxes by various processes 186 00:10:08,250 --> 00:10:05,290 which are in here and the mathematician 187 00:10:09,650 --> 00:10:08,260 which right now Aziz differential 188 00:10:14,680 --> 00:10:09,660 equation 189 00:10:17,990 --> 00:10:14,690 six courses anchor ocean-atmosphere 190 00:10:21,290 --> 00:10:18,000 continents ocean floor biosphere 191 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:21,300 pollution and this is a equation 192 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:23,970 describing the cooling down of samandar 193 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:26,610 and calculating is as heat flux which 194 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:30,210 you ask for for using it to describe the 195 00:10:39,410 --> 00:10:35,610 spread of it so I show you a little bit 196 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:39,420 larger simulation for example this term 197 00:10:48,500 --> 00:10:44,970 here this is a recasting this very 198 00:10:51,470 --> 00:10:48,510 native subtext noise so every term is 199 00:10:54,410 --> 00:10:51,480 related to result in browsers today I 200 00:10:56,630 --> 00:10:54,420 cannot explain all supposes Imperial 201 00:10:59,900 --> 00:10:56,640 because lack of time so i will show you 202 00:11:03,650 --> 00:10:59,910 it it a little bit quickly you can 203 00:11:07,700 --> 00:11:03,660 imagine that for example is this this is 204 00:11:10,070 --> 00:11:07,710 a mathematical expression for this l was 205 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:10,080 this exchange for the sea floor to the 206 00:11:21,940 --> 00:11:18,740 weathering precipitation means the 207 00:11:25,700 --> 00:11:21,950 falling out carbonate of the ocean 208 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:25,710 hypothermia reactions your title certain 209 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:28,970 reactions take 02 from the ocean and 210 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:35,930 deposited at the sea floor and so on and 211 00:11:44,560 --> 00:11:40,650 now if we use the system of a grain we 212 00:11:48,560 --> 00:11:44,570 can calculate the time evolution of 213 00:11:51,500 --> 00:11:48,570 every reservoir of carbon or Walker's 214 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:51,510 history and into the long-term future of 215 00:12:04,090 --> 00:11:57,410 zeros and this is shown here we have 216 00:12:09,560 --> 00:12:04,100 greed is imagine atmosphere ocean arete 217 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:09,570 ocean floors blue kelby display is here 218 00:12:18,100 --> 00:12:15,090 and continents our agenda though we have 219 00:12:22,140 --> 00:12:18,110 some special features for example said 220 00:12:25,310 --> 00:12:22,150 cheering is an object of illusion of say 221 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:25,320 because of increasing solar luminosity 222 00:12:32,940 --> 00:12:29,890 co2 is transferred from zur from the 223 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:32,950 service was over after Samantha SVC uses 224 00:12:38,340 --> 00:12:35,770 and the other reservoirs have is a 225 00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:38,350 certain kind of illusion I don't want to 226 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:41,500 speak about a detail at this point but 227 00:12:49,410 --> 00:12:45,850 you have to believe me that this is a 228 00:12:53,390 --> 00:12:49,420 reside and we can use single reside for 229 00:12:57,090 --> 00:12:53,400 example for calculating atmospheric co2 230 00:12:59,490 --> 00:12:57,100 which is here so what we have some 231 00:13:02,910 --> 00:12:59,500 channel other side said in the arc here 232 00:13:05,250 --> 00:13:02,920 we had a high level of co2 in the 233 00:13:07,980 --> 00:13:05,260 atmosphere because solar luminosity was 234 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:07,990 low and this comes down with evolution 235 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:11,170 into the future this is today since the 236 00:13:19,470 --> 00:13:14,890 beginning this is today this is about 237 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:19,480 two billion years inclusion and this 238 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:23,890 creation area means that within this era 239 00:13:29,700 --> 00:13:27,250 as a co2 content of the atmosphere cover 240 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:29,710 spice to a lean closer surface 241 00:13:36,180 --> 00:13:32,410 temperature between 0 and 100 degrees 242 00:13:38,490 --> 00:13:36,190 Celsius this is a service temperatures a 243 00:13:40,980 --> 00:13:38,500 corresponding and we see according to 244 00:13:43,350 --> 00:13:40,990 the hunting and a growth model we had 245 00:13:45,930 --> 00:13:43,360 first such an effect but we has at very 246 00:13:48,900 --> 00:13:45,940 high temperature but send ten pollutions 247 00:13:50,910 --> 00:13:48,910 went down and had present clear is it 248 00:13:53,780 --> 00:13:50,920 geological sense we have a minimum of 249 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:53,790 atmospheric co2 and is a few or 250 00:13:59,700 --> 00:13:56,530 atmosphere surface temperature and in 251 00:14:03,510 --> 00:13:59,710 the future it will be again to higher 252 00:14:06,740 --> 00:14:03,520 levels this is a point I have done well 253 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:06,750 to speech teacher since a ratio of 254 00:14:15,510 --> 00:14:11,410 carbon in z KO game in his accompanies 255 00:14:18,510 --> 00:14:15,520 it means same ratio of opening to an 256 00:14:23,330 --> 00:14:18,520 organic carbon which was investigated 257 00:14:28,410 --> 00:14:23,340 atomizer main famous german 258 00:14:32,460 --> 00:14:28,420 geoscientists from mines and 259 00:14:37,190 --> 00:14:32,470 and here we say senses it's about this 260 00:14:41,910 --> 00:14:37,200 ratio is about 124 that means one 261 00:14:48,329 --> 00:14:41,920 organic atom of carbon corresponds to 262 00:14:52,740 --> 00:14:48,339 floor inorganic carbon atoms Loski was 263 00:14:56,970 --> 00:14:52,750 the name of this man and Jesus this 264 00:15:03,420 --> 00:14:56,980 curve is taken from zurn from the famous 265 00:15:08,069 --> 00:15:03,430 book of of seller American scientist who 266 00:15:10,500 --> 00:15:08,079 was in in New York she's mackage 267 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:10,510 testicle is probably clear the only 268 00:15:14,850 --> 00:15:12,490 things that is changing with time in 269 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:14,860 your model is the heat flux from the 270 00:15:20,910 --> 00:15:18,570 earth and the Sun loom insulation Z zaza 271 00:15:24,079 --> 00:15:20,920 internal and external forcing is the 272 00:15:29,250 --> 00:15:24,089 only forcing and and of course as a SI 273 00:15:31,470 --> 00:15:29,260 era of continents its air of continents 274 00:15:33,150 --> 00:15:31,480 so you take that as from the geological 275 00:15:36,509 --> 00:15:33,160 record I take it from the cheer logical 276 00:15:39,630 --> 00:15:36,519 record Mike come back to this is your 277 00:15:42,389 --> 00:15:39,640 the carbon fractionation kerrigan go 278 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:42,399 from zero to sort of a step increase at 279 00:15:50,329 --> 00:15:45,730 maybe three because you're from from 280 00:15:53,370 --> 00:15:50,339 zero because it's a at the beginning we 281 00:15:56,009 --> 00:15:53,380 we have no no biosphere but not no big 282 00:16:00,449 --> 00:15:56,019 biosphere they're just turning on the 283 00:16:02,970 --> 00:16:00,459 bastard yes this is a mathematical I'll 284 00:16:07,170 --> 00:16:02,980 be shocked but here it is about this but 285 00:16:15,990 --> 00:16:07,180 say queuing time how it says in in Azure 286 00:16:21,700 --> 00:16:18,790 and open chain is not included it's too 287 00:16:24,670 --> 00:16:21,710 small voices because he's effect because 288 00:16:28,450 --> 00:16:24,680 you knows it so let's say 100 years of 289 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:28,460 top of a chain introduction of co2 to 290 00:16:45,070 --> 00:16:40,450 10 or 50 million years a time step this 291 00:16:47,830 --> 00:16:45,080 is a real global warming at UT today we 292 00:16:49,990 --> 00:16:47,840 had ravines and San lowest mean bit 293 00:16:52,930 --> 00:16:50,000 lower surface temperature and of course 294 00:16:56,110 --> 00:16:52,940 we we have been asked by people oh if 295 00:16:59,950 --> 00:16:56,120 this is right you may be a let's say 296 00:17:03,100 --> 00:16:59,960 somebody is in said can speak for quando 297 00:17:05,500 --> 00:17:03,110 você need input function of co2 but 298 00:17:07,620 --> 00:17:05,510 since the argument is a following the 299 00:17:10,270 --> 00:17:07,630 main problem of Underwood Cheney 300 00:17:14,890 --> 00:17:10,280 introduction of co2 to the atmosphere is 301 00:17:17,710 --> 00:17:14,900 a rate and the rate is about 100 times 302 00:17:22,300 --> 00:17:17,720 higher since a natural way from where 303 00:17:25,900 --> 00:17:22,310 canes this is if mankind would burn them 304 00:17:28,390 --> 00:17:25,910 says so first year feels very slowly 305 00:17:30,550 --> 00:17:28,400 like it was synthesized in nature it 306 00:17:34,450 --> 00:17:30,560 would be nonprofit not involvement but 307 00:17:37,990 --> 00:17:34,460 the rate is a problem right one more 308 00:17:39,700 --> 00:17:38,000 quick question at the end of the run 309 00:17:41,770 --> 00:17:39,710 away temperature presumably this is 310 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:41,780 caused by the death of ruling plants and 311 00:17:50,050 --> 00:17:44,210 so you know how to get feedback from 312 00:17:53,020 --> 00:17:50,060 plant erosion and weathering well I mean 313 00:17:56,740 --> 00:17:53,030 I mean if you hit the main reason of 314 00:18:01,480 --> 00:17:56,750 this is is the increasing Sun you know 315 00:18:03,820 --> 00:18:01,490 at this time the system can make a poses 316 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:03,830 of self-organization we have the 317 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:06,890 increasing site and we say here the 318 00:18:13,450 --> 00:18:08,930 surface temperature is mainly determined 319 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:13,460 by geophysics as a heat flow and by as a 320 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:16,850 era of continents but here the 321 00:18:22,270 --> 00:18:19,610 increasing Sun overcomes all the other 322 00:18:25,270 --> 00:18:22,280 effects if you look at sir it's a 323 00:18:26,450 --> 00:18:25,280 certain where you send makes all other 324 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:26,460 things 325 00:18:32,780 --> 00:18:29,010 don't and it gets worse the loss of 326 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:32,790 biotic weather event this is a an 327 00:18:42,590 --> 00:18:39,450 additional effect but it is a picture I 328 00:18:46,970 --> 00:18:42,600 just showed you we had a very very rough 329 00:18:50,930 --> 00:18:46,980 by asleep we had a biosphere that had 330 00:18:55,010 --> 00:18:50,940 two properties it can exist between 0 331 00:18:57,550 --> 00:18:55,020 and 100 degree Celsius and the second 332 00:19:01,220 --> 00:18:57,560 condition is there must be an 333 00:19:06,980 --> 00:19:01,230 atmospheric co2 content of more than 10 334 00:19:13,820 --> 00:19:06,990 ppm co2 which is a lower limit for c4 335 00:19:15,410 --> 00:19:13,830 plants s supremum pious fair yes but we 336 00:19:19,010 --> 00:19:15,420 know it was a biosphere is more 337 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:19,020 complicated and the other we introduced 338 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:22,410 three types of biosphere namely walk re 339 00:19:33,250 --> 00:19:26,690 oats the most simple type of a biosphere 340 00:19:36,500 --> 00:19:33,260 which have no no or in the cell 341 00:19:40,910 --> 00:19:36,510 eukaryotes simple eukaryotes of watches 342 00:19:45,310 --> 00:19:40,920 which are one cell living beings wizard 343 00:19:49,420 --> 00:19:45,320 or and of course the complex biosphere 344 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:49,430 which consists from my tea seller are 345 00:19:58,640 --> 00:19:53,490 complex living weeds and as grants 346 00:20:04,700 --> 00:19:58,650 animals function and for doing so 347 00:20:08,060 --> 00:20:04,710 muttering we introduce these three types 348 00:20:10,940 --> 00:20:08,070 and the temperature tolerance windows 349 00:20:13,460 --> 00:20:10,950 first this so she broke my oats are very 350 00:20:16,430 --> 00:20:13,470 robust these numbers come from 351 00:20:19,850 --> 00:20:16,440 discussions with academician servoz in 352 00:20:21,770 --> 00:20:19,860 from russian academy of sciences then 353 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:21,780 eukaryotes are little bit more sensitive 354 00:20:27,340 --> 00:20:24,690 say it was say exists in this demo 355 00:20:31,550 --> 00:20:27,350 change and come next maricela life 356 00:20:35,420 --> 00:20:31,560 exists it says temperature range and as 357 00:20:36,530 --> 00:20:35,430 a sensitive sensitivity to co2 in the 358 00:20:39,980 --> 00:20:36,540 atmosphere 359 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:39,990 same as a formal biosphere that means 360 00:20:47,770 --> 00:20:42,690 lower limit for photosynthesis is 361 00:20:51,590 --> 00:20:47,780 tempting p.m. and then we can model 362 00:21:00,250 --> 00:20:51,600 so-called biological productivity were 363 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:00,260 these sweet types and we have a causal 364 00:21:07,670 --> 00:21:04,530 effect we take into account that the 365 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:07,680 biosphere can have an additional effect 366 00:21:14,060 --> 00:21:11,850 on whether it can enhance weathering and 367 00:21:16,490 --> 00:21:14,070 this is described by this because this 368 00:21:19,940 --> 00:21:16,500 is a usual formula for weathering this 369 00:21:27,170 --> 00:21:19,950 activity of protons and this is Iranian 370 00:21:29,090 --> 00:21:27,180 factor and we assumed that the sea boca 371 00:21:31,700 --> 00:21:29,100 yachts and eukaryotes have known 372 00:21:36,140 --> 00:21:31,710 additional effect of wrestling if we put 373 00:21:41,510 --> 00:21:36,150 in here 14 theta 1 and theta 2 we have 374 00:21:44,150 --> 00:21:41,520 one but Sir the complex life-forms have 375 00:21:48,230 --> 00:21:44,160 a additional effect on Wesley we can't 376 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:48,240 imagine for example that the tree has a 377 00:21:58,560 --> 00:21:52,290 strong effect on measuring by by 378 00:22:09,039 --> 00:22:04,690 and if we look at the results we see 379 00:22:10,899 --> 00:22:09,049 here is a time from 3.5 billion years in 380 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:10,909 the past this is today it is a future 381 00:22:16,930 --> 00:22:13,850 and scizzin Sammy global surface thermal 382 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:16,940 analysis Creed curve and we see it's a 383 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:19,850 Arkin he had very high temperatures and 384 00:22:26,110 --> 00:22:23,690 this is it quickly cream and which with 385 00:22:32,049 --> 00:22:26,120 observations from canal and river from a 386 00:22:39,789 --> 00:22:32,059 lot which observed oxygen isotopes oh 16 387 00:22:41,830 --> 00:22:39,799 or 18 ratios and then it fall down this 388 00:22:43,509 --> 00:22:41,840 is a continent growth model for cells 389 00:22:47,289 --> 00:22:43,519 are calling the countries we have some 390 00:22:53,919 --> 00:22:47,299 periods of enhance and not so strong 391 00:22:58,720 --> 00:22:53,929 continental crows yep and NZ's effects 392 00:23:02,379 --> 00:22:58,730 are connected to seize this is Avenged 393 00:23:05,019 --> 00:23:02,389 is a continental growth and here we have 394 00:23:07,090 --> 00:23:05,029 effects and we have two stable solutions 395 00:23:10,810 --> 00:23:07,100 an upper and a lower this upper and 396 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:10,820 lower temperature and then we have here 397 00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:14,450 is effects a couple explosion that goes 398 00:23:24,129 --> 00:23:18,830 down this is today and then we have the 399 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:24,139 future and here we have certain secure 400 00:23:31,299 --> 00:23:26,570 relief biosphere boys it means the 401 00:23:34,750 --> 00:23:31,309 biomass red means from prokaryotes Creed 402 00:23:37,090 --> 00:23:34,760 from eukaryotes proud from complex 403 00:23:39,519 --> 00:23:37,100 multicellular life so it's a beginning 404 00:23:41,399 --> 00:23:39,529 we are normally work on yachts here 405 00:23:44,009 --> 00:23:41,409 there's an appearance of eukaryotes and 406 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:44,019 since is really a Cambrian explosion 407 00:23:54,070 --> 00:23:48,970 explosion like some say complex life 408 00:23:57,310 --> 00:23:54,080 organism come into play and then they go 409 00:24:00,279 --> 00:23:57,320 down to take we have nearly one-third of 410 00:24:04,029 --> 00:24:00,289 sis box out of six work services and in 411 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:04,039 future this part comes down that 412 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:05,450 eukaryotes 413 00:24:15,279 --> 00:24:10,850 at least so 0 comments this girl is 414 00:24:17,529 --> 00:24:15,289 atmospheric oxygen content but because 415 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:17,539 lack of staff I don't want to discuss it 416 00:24:28,409 --> 00:24:20,090 here we can speak about this into the 417 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:28,419 discussion and aziza results can be also 418 00:24:33,940 --> 00:24:32,210 illustrated here since stability diagram 419 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:33,950 here we have this bio training 420 00:24:40,299 --> 00:24:38,330 enhancement factor here style we have 421 00:24:42,789 --> 00:24:40,309 found this enhancement factor for God's 422 00:24:45,549 --> 00:24:42,799 sake white 6 here we are only broke our 423 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:45,559 yachts then comes a Greek our yachts and 424 00:24:53,529 --> 00:24:49,450 do play here is already metastable 425 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:53,539 existence of Modi said all as possible 426 00:24:58,600 --> 00:24:55,850 here we have at least somebody said on 427 00:25:02,440 --> 00:24:58,610 earth but when they died out in the 428 00:25:05,370 --> 00:25:02,450 future yesterday the dying out of the 429 00:25:09,159 --> 00:25:05,380 complex life-forms is a usual form and 430 00:25:13,210 --> 00:25:09,169 not such an explosion like it's a past 431 00:25:16,419 --> 00:25:13,220 and this is so dying out of eukaryotes 432 00:25:18,430 --> 00:25:16,429 as a support team atif life spent that 433 00:25:24,310 --> 00:25:18,440 means a dying out of support islands and 434 00:25:29,970 --> 00:25:24,320 this has a good relation to serve to the 435 00:25:33,159 --> 00:25:29,980 famous cook of peter barton brownlee 436 00:25:37,299 --> 00:25:33,169 namely is the life and death of planet 437 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:37,309 girls amplifier remember this book these 438 00:25:46,029 --> 00:25:41,450 puzzles also proposed that these types 439 00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:46,039 of biosphere died out in the Rose Bowl 440 00:25:52,930 --> 00:25:51,049 as I appeal first I owns the complex 441 00:25:56,019 --> 00:25:52,940 life-forms sends you high oats and at 442 00:25:58,720 --> 00:25:56,029 least support artists but according to 443 00:26:02,139 --> 00:25:58,730 algal cells there is no no complete 444 00:26:06,009 --> 00:26:02,149 symmetry because we say complex life 445 00:26:08,270 --> 00:26:06,019 forms tile is a usual way enough in the 446 00:26:12,650 --> 00:26:08,280 framework of a so-called Andy 447 00:26:15,500 --> 00:26:12,660 how we improve this Amelia the context 448 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:15,510 platform is not like an implosion in 449 00:26:20,740 --> 00:26:17,730 relation to the explosion but is in the 450 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:20,750 usual way as a eukaryotes the pier but 451 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:25,890 this is this is a different the 3.6 452 00:26:30,140 --> 00:26:28,290 factor where does that come from 453 00:26:33,020 --> 00:26:30,150 obviously that's quite important as to 454 00:26:36,740 --> 00:26:33,030 what the value there is it's who you 455 00:26:38,630 --> 00:26:36,750 have of course may just it it it makes 456 00:26:41,870 --> 00:26:38,640 no qualitative but of course 457 00:26:45,470 --> 00:26:41,880 quantitative change and it was used to 458 00:26:50,300 --> 00:26:45,480 to make sense his time of sick ambien 459 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:50,310 explosions 540 million years ago except 460 00:26:56,270 --> 00:26:52,650 at this time I scanned shifted a little 461 00:26:59,630 --> 00:26:56,280 bit so if you work at this failure you 462 00:27:02,000 --> 00:26:59,640 will believe me that is so we had the 463 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:02,010 end of the virus here as proposed but of 464 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:04,290 course we also can speculate about the 465 00:27:11,210 --> 00:27:08,330 end of sea pearls as a planet and in 466 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:11,220 mainly dree hemingway our colleague Mike 467 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:13,890 records for how it must be well also 468 00:27:19,130 --> 00:27:16,530 bought it is feared he located but start 469 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:19,140 the thought the lifespan of signals as a 470 00:27:26,360 --> 00:27:22,770 blend and in last week there was an 471 00:27:28,340 --> 00:27:26,370 article by a car Klaus Baelish widow and 472 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:28,350 the muscle scientists in monthly notice 473 00:27:34,550 --> 00:27:31,890 of service on omegle society about this 474 00:27:38,750 --> 00:27:34,560 problem and of course I cannot speak 475 00:27:43,970 --> 00:27:38,760 about sisters will be in about seven 476 00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:43,980 eight or so billion years 5 or 6 50 days 477 00:27:50,300 --> 00:27:47,790 you know the Sun becomes a red giant in 478 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:50,310 about let's say five or six please and 479 00:27:56,930 --> 00:27:54,090 this is sin so good in my teeth end of 480 00:28:00,950 --> 00:27:56,940 Sir planet girls and now I come to the 481 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:00,960 second part namely to the habitable 482 00:28:06,620 --> 00:28:03,690 zones and the search for a second girls 483 00:28:09,980 --> 00:28:06,630 and I use this picture from andhra nizam 484 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:09,990 exit are we from this book so a little 485 00:28:16,730 --> 00:28:12,930 prince and if you read this book is a 486 00:28:19,100 --> 00:28:16,740 situation where the little prince 487 00:28:23,270 --> 00:28:19,110 ask a friend where he should settle down 488 00:28:25,549 --> 00:28:23,280 and the friend gives him sit rice to 489 00:28:29,090 --> 00:28:25,559 settle down on planet bills because the 490 00:28:31,549 --> 00:28:29,100 girls has a good reputation is this 491 00:28:35,390 --> 00:28:31,559 sense this book is the first definition 492 00:28:39,890 --> 00:28:35,400 of a habitable zone so far I used as a 493 00:28:43,190 --> 00:28:39,900 starting point of course in the 494 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:43,200 scientific field definitions of saratoga 495 00:28:49,370 --> 00:28:46,410 zone starlet later in a more serious way 496 00:28:53,990 --> 00:28:49,380 for example 12 Ostrovsky and Sagan and 497 00:28:56,330 --> 00:28:54,000 others and it lay on Kim's a famous 498 00:28:58,760 --> 00:28:56,340 muddling bagels of heart and of course 499 00:29:04,070 --> 00:28:58,770 of chill costly and his colleagues and 500 00:29:06,890 --> 00:29:04,080 the definition of Sir habitable zone is 501 00:29:09,620 --> 00:29:06,900 here is a range of distances around the 502 00:29:11,660 --> 00:29:09,630 central star at his girls like planets 503 00:29:15,020 --> 00:29:11,670 maintain conditions supplement for the 504 00:29:20,500 --> 00:29:15,030 existence of leg it's a service this 505 00:29:24,740 --> 00:29:20,510 would use a between habitable zone and 506 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:24,750 of course for doing this we have a 507 00:29:33,770 --> 00:29:28,530 simplified system model not as 508 00:29:36,530 --> 00:29:33,780 complicated vs 6s of us but it is 509 00:29:39,049 --> 00:29:36,540 sketched here we have of course not sir 510 00:29:41,299 --> 00:29:39,059 son but another central star and an 511 00:29:44,150 --> 00:29:41,309 internal forcing we have a continental 512 00:29:46,970 --> 00:29:44,160 cross button not such detailed like 513 00:29:50,180 --> 00:29:46,980 secondi model but maybe lineal goes or 514 00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:50,190 constant grunting Andrea tempt we 515 00:29:56,750 --> 00:29:52,559 calculate the heat flow ensor the 516 00:30:00,820 --> 00:29:56,760 physics behind this model is that the 517 00:30:04,070 --> 00:30:00,830 atmospheric content of such a planet has 518 00:30:06,850 --> 00:30:04,080 sources and sinks into piracy resources 519 00:30:09,650 --> 00:30:06,860 our work any sources which can be 520 00:30:13,100 --> 00:30:09,660 calculated from mythical he lives and 521 00:30:15,370 --> 00:30:13,110 spreading models since as a leveling 522 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:15,380 which I explained already said 523 00:30:22,900 --> 00:30:20,210 carbonates and silly case of continents 524 00:30:24,590 --> 00:30:22,910 the egg in a chemical way wizard 525 00:30:27,290 --> 00:30:24,600 atmospheric co2 526 00:30:29,150 --> 00:30:27,300 and of course a biosphere takes out co2 527 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:29,160 from the atmosphere and when it died it 528 00:30:34,810 --> 00:30:31,890 gives Feng to co2 to the atmosphere so 529 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:34,820 this is a main idea which means yet such 530 00:30:45,860 --> 00:30:42,570 simplified models and heavy uses only 531 00:30:47,780 --> 00:30:45,870 model again for the girls when he's 532 00:30:50,030 --> 00:30:47,790 because we start with her with our solar 533 00:30:56,570 --> 00:30:50,040 system and later on you use linear 534 00:30:59,410 --> 00:30:56,580 models or constants and of course he is 535 00:31:03,830 --> 00:30:59,420 our definition of the habitable zone in 536 00:31:06,140 --> 00:31:03,840 our definition so happy Jabba's old is a 537 00:31:09,250 --> 00:31:06,150 range of distances around the central 538 00:31:12,590 --> 00:31:09,260 star they are biological what activity 539 00:31:16,310 --> 00:31:12,600 biological productivity is a biomass say 540 00:31:20,540 --> 00:31:16,320 this or juice and a blend the unit of 541 00:31:23,390 --> 00:31:20,550 service and very humid of time and he 542 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:23,400 been sponsored must ferry co2 and Hudson 543 00:31:29,210 --> 00:31:26,130 and 20 service temperature is larger 544 00:31:31,250 --> 00:31:29,220 sense hero when biological activity is 545 00:31:35,450 --> 00:31:31,260 larger seoane we also have each other's 546 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:35,460 own here is 0 because it is too hot here 547 00:31:42,110 --> 00:31:38,210 this year because you should occur and 548 00:31:45,290 --> 00:31:42,120 he was a temperature in toggle between 0 549 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:45,300 and 100 degrees again 10 ppm as a 550 00:31:52,580 --> 00:31:48,650 minimum and from Paula metrological 551 00:31:56,330 --> 00:31:52,590 documents we also get health and maximum 552 00:32:06,350 --> 00:32:01,669 and when we apply this model for the 553 00:32:08,990 --> 00:32:06,360 solar system we have fears and son he 554 00:32:13,430 --> 00:32:09,000 has Venus he has pearls and here's Mars 555 00:32:16,100 --> 00:32:13,440 and this is to tame this is 1 billion 556 00:32:21,430 --> 00:32:16,110 here in the past this is 1 billion years 557 00:32:23,870 --> 00:32:21,440 of future and what do we see this is a 558 00:32:27,470 --> 00:32:23,880 lower boundary of sahab each other's 559 00:32:30,799 --> 00:32:27,480 soul and it shifts slowly out how to his 560 00:32:34,730 --> 00:32:30,809 time and of course this is to understand 561 00:32:37,940 --> 00:32:34,740 because self so solar luminosity crows 562 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:37,950 son it becomes hotter and the inner 563 00:32:45,019 --> 00:32:41,130 boundary shifts out what because comes 564 00:32:47,299 --> 00:32:45,029 to what at such a place and up to this 565 00:32:49,340 --> 00:32:47,309 time this is also the case for the outer 566 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:49,350 boundary and also it's a models of 567 00:32:55,730 --> 00:32:53,730 Jocasta we have assist but here the 568 00:32:59,799 --> 00:32:55,740 country's growth of countenance comes 569 00:33:03,680 --> 00:32:59,809 into play so if the countenance crows 570 00:33:06,110 --> 00:33:03,690 the kunene and Ella makes more air for 571 00:33:09,889 --> 00:33:06,120 chemical weathering rich if we have 572 00:33:13,340 --> 00:33:09,899 larger continent here and so more co2 is 573 00:33:16,549 --> 00:33:13,350 taken out from the atmosphere as l4z the 574 00:33:21,980 --> 00:33:16,559 outer boundary shifts in god this is 575 00:33:24,620 --> 00:33:21,990 today and and then we have a point where 576 00:33:27,529 --> 00:33:24,630 as a habitable zone vanishes and this is 577 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:27,539 a pretty much obliged spell I'd be it 578 00:33:34,789 --> 00:33:30,690 can imagine that if it said it also 579 00:33:37,250 --> 00:33:34,799 could be shifted about eight ten 580 00:33:39,710 --> 00:33:37,260 thousand ball that the present distant 581 00:33:43,210 --> 00:33:39,720 from the Sun the way then it would be 582 00:33:47,419 --> 00:33:43,220 assists let's say optimum distance yeah 583 00:33:49,970 --> 00:33:47,429 it's this way it leaves a big episode 584 00:33:54,350 --> 00:33:49,980 and say no boundary about 500 business 585 00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:54,360 this money and we see in the present 586 00:34:00,980 --> 00:33:57,570 time only zeros it's a habitable zone 587 00:34:02,820 --> 00:34:00,990 it's near Z Z a no boundary but we 588 00:34:05,940 --> 00:34:02,830 should be careful 1 billion years 589 00:34:07,860 --> 00:34:05,950 go we cannot say Mars was habitable have 590 00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:07,870 each other because it's model host 40 591 00:34:15,810 --> 00:34:11,020 sleep we must say correctly 1 billion 592 00:34:18,599 --> 00:34:15,820 years ago the planet Earth it's a 593 00:34:22,550 --> 00:34:18,609 present position of Mars which happening 594 00:34:25,710 --> 00:34:22,560 habita yes this would be the correct 595 00:34:27,750 --> 00:34:25,720 answer for this week we should have the 596 00:34:35,550 --> 00:34:27,760 planetary evolution with a especially 597 00:34:38,010 --> 00:34:35,560 for Mars and investigates and if we go 598 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:38,020 to other central stars now I can this 599 00:34:42,540 --> 00:34:40,450 may quickly we should yourself from Gaza 600 00:34:45,030 --> 00:34:42,550 diet transit means the luminosity 601 00:34:50,099 --> 00:34:45,040 temperature relations independence of 602 00:34:54,060 --> 00:34:50,109 sis Thomas and you know low mass central 603 00:34:55,619 --> 00:34:54,070 stars are very very long on the main 604 00:34:58,740 --> 00:34:55,629 sequence this is the main sequence 605 00:35:01,530 --> 00:34:58,750 answer the difference between these 606 00:35:04,500 --> 00:35:01,540 point is 1 billion years here is the Sun 607 00:35:08,370 --> 00:35:04,510 it's 4.6 billion years old and it says 608 00:35:11,099 --> 00:35:08,380 about the same time it's a future on the 609 00:35:14,329 --> 00:35:11,109 main sequence and we also have self if 610 00:35:19,410 --> 00:35:14,339 we have more massive star for example 611 00:35:22,020 --> 00:35:19,420 the two so llamas saddle star is only a 612 00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:22,030 little bit more than 1 billion years as 613 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:25,089 the main spirits short I'm intimate 614 00:35:33,540 --> 00:35:28,810 secrets it's not in use for you as a 615 00:35:37,670 --> 00:35:33,550 physicist and so we can calculate this 616 00:35:40,050 --> 00:35:37,680 is habitable zone for all different 617 00:35:44,370 --> 00:35:40,060 samples Thomas's here we have an example 618 00:35:46,170 --> 00:35:44,380 for for a solo mas but not sir Colleen 619 00:35:49,349 --> 00:35:46,180 and her crows model of Conde butter 620 00:35:51,900 --> 00:35:49,359 simple model and we have again this 621 00:35:53,970 --> 00:35:51,910 effects and at this point we have a 622 00:35:55,050 --> 00:35:53,980 shrinking of the auto Pollux a habitable 623 00:35:59,130 --> 00:35:55,060 zone 624 00:36:03,480 --> 00:35:59,140 nice spot for eighty percent central 625 00:36:07,100 --> 00:36:03,490 star the habitable zone is more kneel to 626 00:36:10,050 --> 00:36:07,110 the central star and it does not shift 627 00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:10,060 so very much but here we have against is 628 00:36:16,430 --> 00:36:13,810 a thing but for 120,000 central stop the 629 00:36:19,290 --> 00:36:16,440 heavy jeppesen is more outward that one 630 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:19,300 astronomical unit yeah this is a 631 00:36:25,890 --> 00:36:21,970 distance in astronomical units but 632 00:36:28,590 --> 00:36:25,900 according to the short lifetime when the 633 00:36:36,230 --> 00:36:28,600 main sequence sis stopped because at 634 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:36,240 this point the Sun becomes a fish I know 635 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:40,570 we could use this and now I come to a 636 00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:43,330 next point namely the so called dynamic 637 00:36:49,050 --> 00:36:46,450 earth habitable zone up to now we did 638 00:36:52,770 --> 00:36:49,060 not investigate extrasolar planetary 639 00:36:56,670 --> 00:36:52,780 systems in a special way but if we look 640 00:36:59,850 --> 00:36:56,680 at special extrasolar planetary systems 641 00:37:02,460 --> 00:36:59,860 whether i was at one extrasolar planets 642 00:37:07,140 --> 00:37:02,470 so maybe is in effect let's say is a 643 00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:07,150 giant planet like here that has a 644 00:37:18,210 --> 00:37:10,690 cavitation influence once a habitable 645 00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:18,220 zone and for example he can force that 646 00:37:23,430 --> 00:37:21,250 there are unstable orbits of other 647 00:37:27,300 --> 00:37:23,440 planets within this range in his 648 00:37:31,470 --> 00:37:27,310 neighborhood and the rest of saboteurs 649 00:37:33,930 --> 00:37:31,480 own is called the dynamical habitable 650 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:33,940 sword so usually to dynamic the 651 00:37:38,910 --> 00:37:36,330 habitable zone is wall of the answer 652 00:37:41,190 --> 00:37:38,920 since the ordinary habitable zone at 653 00:37:44,430 --> 00:37:41,200 least it could be the same where you if 654 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:44,440 this is more outward it's I think it's 655 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:47,170 to understand to calculates a dynamical 656 00:37:53,250 --> 00:37:50,050 habitable zone and this wage can be 657 00:37:59,550 --> 00:37:53,260 calculated with help of the few radius 658 00:38:04,050 --> 00:37:59,560 of cysteine planets and we have used a 659 00:38:07,330 --> 00:38:04,060 catalog and found 86 XO planetary 660 00:38:11,770 --> 00:38:07,340 systems where we find all the data flow 661 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:11,780 mass of the giant planets and and mass 662 00:38:16,660 --> 00:38:14,330 and luminosity in age of central star 663 00:38:19,570 --> 00:38:16,670 and effective radiation temperature 664 00:38:26,070 --> 00:38:19,580 which we needed to do the calculation 665 00:38:29,910 --> 00:38:26,080 and from these 86 investigated systems 666 00:38:35,740 --> 00:38:29,920 we found that more than sixty percent 667 00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:35,750 have a non resin vanishing widths of the 668 00:38:41,890 --> 00:38:38,330 dynamic habitable zone when I was a 669 00:38:44,550 --> 00:38:41,900 dynamic habitable zone as a usual but 670 00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:44,560 under the condition that there are no 671 00:38:53,470 --> 00:38:47,930 cavitation a lot of patience of orbits 672 00:38:57,880 --> 00:38:53,480 of possible just like models and here is 673 00:39:01,510 --> 00:38:57,890 the age of sea systems and here are the 674 00:39:06,340 --> 00:39:01,520 names of sea systems and we investigated 675 00:39:12,340 --> 00:39:06,350 earth-like planets with a constant ratio 676 00:39:14,710 --> 00:39:12,350 of continents and oceans here we have 677 00:39:17,050 --> 00:39:14,720 only ten twenty or thirty percent 678 00:39:20,500 --> 00:39:17,060 countenance these are so-called water 679 00:39:23,470 --> 00:39:20,510 wells like in the movie of Kevin Costner 680 00:39:25,240 --> 00:39:23,480 and these are land worlds where we have 681 00:39:27,940 --> 00:39:25,250 90 pills and continents and this has a 682 00:39:30,370 --> 00:39:27,950 strong influence on habitability as we 683 00:39:33,510 --> 00:39:30,380 found her and here he sees these colors 684 00:39:36,370 --> 00:39:33,520 and we see said always the water worlds 685 00:39:40,270 --> 00:39:36,380 have a larger width of the dynamic 686 00:39:43,720 --> 00:39:40,280 habitable zone and the most important 687 00:39:50,500 --> 00:39:43,730 finding for us was effect said our solar 688 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:50,510 system is at place 19 though if we use 689 00:39:56,310 --> 00:39:52,970 this definition that the width of said 690 00:39:59,140 --> 00:39:56,320 memory girl habitable zone is a measure 691 00:40:04,150 --> 00:39:59,150 let's say for the habitability in the 692 00:40:06,370 --> 00:40:04,160 system we found 18 systems that have 693 00:40:11,350 --> 00:40:06,380 better conditions for finding a second 694 00:40:15,070 --> 00:40:11,360 girls as an hour's hola system and this 695 00:40:17,790 --> 00:40:15,080 for us to the idea that this is a let's 696 00:40:20,300 --> 00:40:17,800 say manifestation of mediocrity 697 00:40:23,380 --> 00:40:20,310 principle which was introduced 698 00:40:27,820 --> 00:40:23,390 copernicus when he went from the 699 00:40:30,710 --> 00:40:27,830 geocentric to serve heliocentric system 700 00:40:32,630 --> 00:40:30,720 that he said the solar system and life 701 00:40:34,220 --> 00:40:32,640 when else are about average and live 702 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:34,230 well developed by the same words but 703 00:40:39,170 --> 00:40:36,450 others of proper conditions and the 704 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:39,180 needed time are given so earth is 705 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:42,770 nothing special or solar system but it's 706 00:40:50,830 --> 00:40:47,970 media kriti now I come to the point of 707 00:40:55,180 --> 00:40:50,840 calculating the number of habitable 708 00:40:58,280 --> 00:40:55,190 planets in the Milky Way and the first 709 00:41:03,020 --> 00:40:58,290 way to do this is with a help of the 710 00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:03,030 famous Drake formula regístrate I he 711 00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:06,170 wanted to calculate a number of 712 00:41:11,420 --> 00:41:09,090 intelligent civilizations in the Milky 713 00:41:14,270 --> 00:41:11,430 Way and so he proposed to Doozers 714 00:41:17,150 --> 00:41:14,280 reserves his formula the total number of 715 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:17,160 stars in the Milky Way times the 716 00:41:21,470 --> 00:41:19,010 fraction of stars that have planets 717 00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:21,480 times the fraction of stars that have 718 00:41:25,940 --> 00:41:23,490 girls like planets times the flight 719 00:41:28,670 --> 00:41:25,950 earth land planets at irons a habitable 720 00:41:31,970 --> 00:41:28,680 zone times a fraction of habitable 721 00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:31,980 planets developed life time the flexion 722 00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:34,050 of habitable planets that developed 723 00:41:39,950 --> 00:41:37,410 intelligent life times the fraction of 724 00:41:43,940 --> 00:41:39,960 intelligent life that develops radio 725 00:41:46,130 --> 00:41:43,950 technology and here's a normalized mean 726 00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:46,140 lifetime of an intelligent civilization 727 00:41:52,010 --> 00:41:49,410 you know this is a topic of discussions 728 00:41:58,670 --> 00:41:52,020 and every scientist can use its values 729 00:42:01,280 --> 00:41:58,680 but we proposed that for calculating the 730 00:42:05,510 --> 00:42:01,290 number of habitable planets he only 731 00:42:11,930 --> 00:42:05,520 needs a first four factors and these two 732 00:42:13,670 --> 00:42:11,940 have been mixed to one factor so we we 733 00:42:15,830 --> 00:42:13,680 found that according to the 734 00:42:18,620 --> 00:42:15,840 investigation of extra solar systems we 735 00:42:20,990 --> 00:42:18,630 have more experience about these values 736 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:21,000 the number of total stars in the Milky 737 00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:24,450 Way is four hundred billions then we 738 00:42:30,070 --> 00:42:26,370 assumes it's a fraction of stars was 739 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:30,080 earth-like planets is about 1% and this 740 00:42:33,980 --> 00:42:32,850 could be calculated from our 741 00:42:36,530 --> 00:42:33,990 investigations of 742 00:42:38,870 --> 00:42:36,540 beat ability I cannot show it in TJ 743 00:42:41,750 --> 00:42:38,880 right we could talk about this in the 744 00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:41,760 discussion and we found that there is a 745 00:42:47,060 --> 00:42:44,850 function of about 1.2 percent of 746 00:42:52,540 --> 00:42:47,070 earth-like planets in the habitable zone 747 00:42:58,820 --> 00:42:52,550 and this gives us a number of about 748 00:43:05,120 --> 00:42:58,830 eighty four or four hundred million four 749 00:43:08,690 --> 00:43:05,130 hundred eighty million voila 80-84 48 750 00:43:11,930 --> 00:43:08,700 million 50 about 50 million excuse me 84 751 00:43:15,380 --> 00:43:11,940 million of habitable planets in the 752 00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:15,390 Milky Way those is a rather simple 753 00:43:22,730 --> 00:43:17,970 calculation if you have another feeling 754 00:43:25,690 --> 00:43:22,740 of numbers you can put it in and but 755 00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:25,700 there's another method to calculate 756 00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:28,890 these number of habitable planet was out 757 00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:31,290 of a convolution in Dakar the 758 00:43:37,370 --> 00:43:33,930 convolution integral means it's a Time 759 00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:37,380 in the car where we calculate the number 760 00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:40,530 of habitable planets first from the 761 00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:43,410 planet formation rate at a certain time 762 00:43:56,690 --> 00:43:50,930 T prime times the probability that an 763 00:44:01,940 --> 00:43:56,700 earth-like planet that is that appeared 764 00:44:06,380 --> 00:44:01,950 at the time T prime is even in the 765 00:44:11,270 --> 00:44:06,390 habitable zone at a later time T this is 766 00:44:14,540 --> 00:44:11,280 this convolution and this could be taken 767 00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:14,550 for exam investigations of charles line 768 00:44:21,140 --> 00:44:18,450 available from sydney and this could be 769 00:44:23,660 --> 00:44:21,150 taken also i will not speak a teacher 770 00:44:25,700 --> 00:44:23,670 but if he takes his in dakar we have a 771 00:44:32,570 --> 00:44:25,710 number of habitable planets at yourself 772 00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:32,580 time t and here here we f this is planet 773 00:44:37,849 --> 00:44:35,130 formation rate normalized to the Milky 774 00:44:40,460 --> 00:44:37,859 Way so at this is presence is also 775 00:44:44,589 --> 00:44:40,470 Richmond to this big bang so at present 776 00:44:44,599 --> 00:44:56,329 about wow 777 00:44:56,339 --> 00:45:07,420 you have a planet formation rate of of 778 00:45:18,229 --> 00:45:15,709 0.10 a year and and here we have the 779 00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:18,239 calculated number of habitable planets 780 00:45:24,859 --> 00:45:22,170 and at the beginning we have no material 781 00:45:26,209 --> 00:45:24,869 so the planetary formation rate was zero 782 00:45:31,219 --> 00:45:26,219 and also is the number of her feet a bit 783 00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:31,229 less but then it came very high and it's 784 00:45:42,140 --> 00:45:36,089 down and now we have here a value in the 785 00:45:44,089 --> 00:45:42,150 all of let's say 30 million we had 48 in 786 00:45:48,529 --> 00:45:44,099 this is the calculation here 30 min and 787 00:45:50,989 --> 00:45:48,539 Wallace also interesting that new to the 788 00:45:52,940 --> 00:45:50,999 time of Earth or region we had a maximum 789 00:45:58,009 --> 00:45:52,950 number of habitable planets in the Milky 790 00:46:01,190 --> 00:45:58,019 Way exist for us to the idea that at 791 00:46:04,759 --> 00:46:01,200 least if panspermia in the stellar plans 792 00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:04,769 / Mia was possible at all said it was 793 00:46:15,940 --> 00:46:08,210 most probable it's a time of also agent 794 00:46:24,859 --> 00:46:21,849 though we try to use this to to do some 795 00:46:30,259 --> 00:46:24,869 quantitative estimation sposa hello 796 00:46:32,930 --> 00:46:30,269 those hypotheses of the world and Donald 797 00:46:37,359 --> 00:46:32,940 Romney and we calculated so we're here 798 00:46:40,999 --> 00:46:37,369 real girls factor namely is a number of 799 00:46:44,349 --> 00:46:41,009 habitable planets which are appropriate 800 00:46:48,559 --> 00:46:44,359 for primitive life only to the number of 801 00:46:54,589 --> 00:46:48,569 habitable planets which are appropriate 802 00:46:58,400 --> 00:46:54,599 also for complex life and doing this we 803 00:47:01,190 --> 00:46:58,410 did a similar population like I have 804 00:47:03,769 --> 00:47:01,200 shown before we have the number of 805 00:47:08,390 --> 00:47:03,779 habitable planets here was primitive 806 00:47:09,270 --> 00:47:08,400 life and here with complex life here's 807 00:47:15,060 --> 00:47:09,280 Big Bang 808 00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:15,070 is today and we found a difference of 10 809 00:47:23,610 --> 00:47:18,130 to the power of 2 that means at present 810 00:47:26,580 --> 00:47:23,620 we have 100 times more planets this 811 00:47:29,340 --> 00:47:26,590 primitive life centers complex life but 812 00:47:32,420 --> 00:47:29,350 I should say that says is in any way a 813 00:47:35,340 --> 00:47:32,430 lower powered because there are a lot of 814 00:47:38,010 --> 00:47:35,350 factors that are discussed is a book by 815 00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:38,020 Peter water tunnel boundary that we up 816 00:47:45,290 --> 00:47:41,290 to now did not take into account givi 817 00:47:48,300 --> 00:47:45,300 took only into a current such a 818 00:47:52,830 --> 00:47:48,310 poisoning effect of too high co2 content 819 00:47:55,500 --> 00:47:52,840 and ends a sensibility to the 820 00:47:57,540 --> 00:47:55,510 temperature tolerance window one should 821 00:48:00,000 --> 00:47:57,550 take into account select or the 822 00:48:02,310 --> 00:48:00,010 existence of a magnetic field and into 823 00:48:05,330 --> 00:48:02,320 many under puzzle point so this is 824 00:48:08,420 --> 00:48:05,340 always a lower bound and in future 825 00:48:11,700 --> 00:48:08,430 estimations this number will become 826 00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:11,710 larger but it's remarkable that the 827 00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:16,330 ratio doesn't change that much over time 828 00:48:24,470 --> 00:48:19,930 that's said much yes and of course here 829 00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:28,440 hear this kid it is a oh no no I 830 00:48:36,330 --> 00:48:32,290 mean yes yeah do you mean sis yes yeah 831 00:48:43,370 --> 00:48:36,340 we go down if you take those two guys 832 00:48:48,090 --> 00:48:43,380 much more seriously than we do why I 833 00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:48,100 come to the last big shock you can 834 00:48:56,720 --> 00:48:51,490 imagine that these investigation of for 835 00:49:00,360 --> 00:48:56,730 example in the in investigating a 836 00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:00,370 specific extrasolar planetary systems we 837 00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:04,210 started with a so-called 47 you my 838 00:49:10,020 --> 00:49:07,330 system you know you ma was a miles so 839 00:49:13,620 --> 00:49:10,030 forty sevens brightest star in was a 840 00:49:17,940 --> 00:49:13,630 mayores which was discussed some years 841 00:49:20,610 --> 00:49:17,950 ago as a first system it has a little 842 00:49:21,860 --> 00:49:20,620 bit as similarly to the solar system 843 00:49:24,530 --> 00:49:21,870 because 844 00:49:27,980 --> 00:49:24,540 say discovered two giant planets a 845 00:49:32,210 --> 00:49:27,990 little bit outside comparable to to 846 00:49:34,790 --> 00:49:32,220 Jupiter ends at 2am and and so habitable 847 00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:34,800 zone was a little bit inside like in the 848 00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:36,090 solar system and therefore we 849 00:49:42,250 --> 00:49:38,370 investigated this and found out that 850 00:49:46,100 --> 00:49:42,260 water worlds are refilled and so nature 851 00:49:49,670 --> 00:49:46,110 didn't published our original paper but 852 00:49:51,860 --> 00:49:49,680 safe published an article about our of 853 00:49:55,100 --> 00:49:51,870 each neighborhood international journal 854 00:49:57,860 --> 00:49:55,110 of astrobiology and so there have been a 855 00:50:01,670 --> 00:49:57,870 lot of of media's that reported about 856 00:50:08,230 --> 00:50:01,680 says this was a top and this is a lower 857 00:50:10,820 --> 00:50:08,240 end sir yes I don't is a is a the most 858 00:50:14,030 --> 00:50:10,830 devious yellow dress and Germany likes 859 00:50:17,870 --> 00:50:14,040 the British son and they came to our 860 00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:17,880 Institute with wasn't in august 2003 I 861 00:50:23,180 --> 00:50:20,130 wasn't holiday this is my coworker 862 00:50:26,770 --> 00:50:23,190 thamma phut blow it built cycle came and 863 00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:26,780 took a photo of him and here our 864 00:50:31,190 --> 00:50:29,130 building of our Institute as a former 865 00:50:35,390 --> 00:50:31,200 astrophysics your thoughts comes Jose 866 00:50:38,900 --> 00:50:35,400 even had tillers go ahead and reported 867 00:50:41,470 --> 00:50:38,910 about self in the main point is there's 868 00:50:45,980 --> 00:50:41,480 a slogan village brings it to the point 869 00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:45,990 if say would have asked me to to write 870 00:50:52,100 --> 00:50:49,410 about it to talk about this possibility 871 00:50:55,310 --> 00:50:52,110 of the existence of the second girls in 872 00:50:58,520 --> 00:50:55,320 47 who say my yours in German posle 873 00:51:00,980 --> 00:50:58,530 there was a myosin was about big deal 874 00:51:03,010 --> 00:51:00,990 and I would have said there could be 875 00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:03,020 special conditions a harder sell 876 00:51:14,620 --> 00:51:05,850 conditions may be easier exist and so on 877 00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:18,650 this is my closing remarks and I think 878 00:51:37,720 --> 00:51:34,410 you very much for your attention a lot 879 00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:37,730 of your models seem to depend on having 880 00:51:43,460 --> 00:51:40,650 progressive continental growth built 881 00:51:47,180 --> 00:51:43,470 into an expanding continental area 882 00:51:50,150 --> 00:51:47,190 through time there's a substantial 883 00:51:52,790 --> 00:51:50,160 fraction of geoscientists who disagree 884 00:51:55,460 --> 00:51:52,800 with the conde model of that based on 885 00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:55,470 would argue that continental area on 886 00:52:02,870 --> 00:51:57,810 earth probably been pretty consistent 887 00:52:06,290 --> 00:52:02,880 since four billion years ago and also 888 00:52:08,510 --> 00:52:06,300 argue with the Schwartzman bottle for 889 00:52:11,390 --> 00:52:08,520 temperature evolution as worth arguing 890 00:52:14,810 --> 00:52:11,400 that's been roughly constant through 891 00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:14,820 time if you were to change the inputs 892 00:52:19,370 --> 00:52:16,530 into your model have a constant 893 00:52:20,900 --> 00:52:19,380 continental area relatively constant 894 00:52:29,450 --> 00:52:20,910 surface temperature how would that 895 00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:29,460 change things we use honey model the 896 00:52:37,940 --> 00:52:34,290 girls but we believed but was an 897 00:52:41,990 --> 00:52:37,950 extrasolar planetary system he usually 898 00:52:46,370 --> 00:52:42,000 used the model of constant continent ER 899 00:52:55,610 --> 00:52:46,380 but of course seminars for example if i 900 00:53:00,980 --> 00:52:55,620 go and i may go back here we always you 901 00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:00,990 can you can assume if the continent area 902 00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:03,930 is for example only 10,000 if we have a 903 00:53:09,380 --> 00:53:06,090 water world then we have this result was 904 00:53:11,990 --> 00:53:09,390 a blue we have no growing of continents 905 00:53:16,100 --> 00:53:12,000 in this because we be done no practical 906 00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:16,110 in nothing since extrasolar planetary 907 00:53:20,310 --> 00:53:18,210 system it but i was referring more to 908 00:53:22,860 --> 00:53:20,320 your terrestrial all 909 00:53:25,830 --> 00:53:22,870 the past and future evolution of the 910 00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:25,840 earth if you assume constant continental 911 00:53:47,310 --> 00:53:28,690 area in those other things change this 912 00:53:57,180 --> 00:53:47,320 is change publication I was you are why 913 00:53:59,280 --> 00:53:57,190 did I give ed but not one Jenny on the 914 00:54:01,500 --> 00:53:59,290 biological side I find that you have 915 00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:01,510 significantly underestimated the 916 00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:04,570 prokaryotic world and I see that in a 917 00:54:09,630 --> 00:54:06,370 couple of ways of the first part of your 918 00:54:12,150 --> 00:54:09,640 talk you have today's world being the 919 00:54:15,450 --> 00:54:12,160 carbon being tied up and only one third 920 00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:15,460 to the prokaryotic world whereas all the 921 00:54:21,150 --> 00:54:18,130 calculations I know about say majority 922 00:54:23,430 --> 00:54:21,160 of the biomass is prokaryotic today you 923 00:54:25,980 --> 00:54:23,440 also have a graph that shows the 924 00:54:27,890 --> 00:54:25,990 complete disappearance of prokaryotes at 925 00:54:31,590 --> 00:54:27,900 some point today or in the near future 926 00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:31,600 which doesn't make sense to me and so 927 00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:33,370 I'm wondering an under estimating a 928 00:54:38,100 --> 00:54:35,890 prokaryotic world how that carries over 929 00:54:39,900 --> 00:54:38,110 into the second part of your talk have 930 00:54:46,410 --> 00:54:39,910 you underestimated the number of 931 00:54:51,870 --> 00:54:46,420 habitable planets by coherence this is 932 00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:51,880 the first part of your question there is 933 00:54:58,200 --> 00:54:55,210 a number two days of biomass from from 934 00:55:01,170 --> 00:54:58,210 broken your tech pod is about one third 935 00:55:03,690 --> 00:55:01,180 I don't know if you speak about the deep 936 00:55:05,580 --> 00:55:03,700 biosphere I included that in the air if 937 00:55:07,710 --> 00:55:05,590 you include two deep biosphere of course 938 00:55:10,710 --> 00:55:07,720 but our our model is for the 939 00:55:12,930 --> 00:55:10,720 habitability it's a surface of cells so 940 00:55:14,850 --> 00:55:12,940 if you include a deep biosphere you are 941 00:55:21,300 --> 00:55:14,860 completing your attack you include the 942 00:55:24,050 --> 00:55:21,310 deep ocean only also not you know this 943 00:55:25,990 --> 00:55:24,060 is a is a box model the other ocean has 944 00:55:28,240 --> 00:55:26,000 well 945 00:55:33,250 --> 00:55:28,250 can you spot the same tumblers it's 946 00:55:35,290 --> 00:55:33,260 nothing especially resolved there's a 947 00:55:43,720 --> 00:55:35,300 fuji negative lifespan according to this 948 00:55:47,170 --> 00:55:43,730 is one part yes and i cannot say if of 949 00:55:50,290 --> 00:55:47,180 course the numbers will change if we 950 00:55:54,820 --> 00:55:50,300 make or more developed a model for the 951 00:55:58,750 --> 00:55:54,830 proprietary code but maybe answer is a 952 00:56:04,960 --> 00:55:58,760 case set that seasons a number of Ohio 953 00:56:07,630 --> 00:56:04,970 Jake well it's close up of us you know 954 00:56:09,490 --> 00:56:07,640 it hit our now all models a biosphere 955 00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:09,500 has only two limits namely the 956 00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:12,970 temperature tolerance window and 957 00:56:19,900 --> 00:56:16,850 secondly is a must be enough co2 wasn't 958 00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:19,910 so broke I oats are robust that they can 959 00:56:26,490 --> 00:56:23,930 live also at very high as a co2 contents 960 00:56:30,790 --> 00:56:26,500 the atmosphere in this model only is a 961 00:56:32,530 --> 00:56:30,800 complex work with this sensitive so I 962 00:56:36,390 --> 00:56:32,540 find that you've been conservative in 963 00:56:40,060 --> 00:56:36,400 your temperature range so if you if you 964 00:56:41,830 --> 00:56:40,070 reverse that position then I'm wondering 965 00:56:45,430 --> 00:56:41,840 how that translates to the rest of your 966 00:56:47,350 --> 00:56:45,440 conclusions if the prokaryotic the 967 00:56:51,790 --> 00:56:47,360 number of program carry otic world's 968 00:56:55,270 --> 00:56:51,800 potentially goes up this is the right 969 00:56:57,760 --> 00:56:55,280 direction because we think this ratio or 970 00:57:00,580 --> 00:56:57,770 from experience should be not risen like 971 00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:00,590 this is a little fun my drawing 972 00:57:10,749 --> 00:57:02,810 knowledge as was a to first quantitative 973 00:57:17,799 --> 00:57:14,329 and youth your temperature curve for the 974 00:57:19,910 --> 00:57:17,809 earth with us I'll talk I think you had 975 00:57:22,430 --> 00:57:19,920 between sort of two or three billion 976 00:57:24,849 --> 00:57:22,440 years you've got temperatures of 40 50 977 00:57:28,249 --> 00:57:24,859 60 degrees but there's evidence 978 00:57:32,630 --> 00:57:28,259 relations period because part vectors 979 00:57:34,970 --> 00:57:32,640 yes equation of 2.5 just question we 980 00:57:37,460 --> 00:57:34,980 have all the user it's a near photo it's 981 00:57:39,739 --> 00:57:37,470 all equally access no Porter's and so 982 00:57:42,759 --> 00:57:39,749 but but there's also evidence for 983 00:57:46,729 --> 00:57:42,769 snuggle as much about that this is a 984 00:57:49,870 --> 00:57:46,739 really is a very long skier temperatures 985 00:57:53,390 --> 00:57:49,880 that is called you know even here we had 986 00:57:55,489 --> 00:57:53,400 glaciations but this is not included in 987 00:57:57,890 --> 00:57:55,499 this model this is a geological 988 00:58:01,009 --> 00:57:57,900 background temperature but at least has 989 00:58:04,059 --> 00:58:01,019 evidence from cloud and louvers that at 990 00:58:07,729 --> 00:58:04,069 this time we had very very high 991 00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:07,739 temperatures in the ocean surface from 992 00:58:22,180 --> 00:58:19,660 they sent over Asia world models 993 00:58:24,590 --> 00:58:22,190 resistance of biosphere autopilot 994 00:58:25,910 --> 00:58:24,600 extends that have a polite and the 995 00:58:32,510 --> 00:58:25,920 biosphere is that true in all of your 996 00:58:35,210 --> 00:58:32,520 models as well yes we the XM discussion 997 00:58:42,970 --> 00:58:35,220 and for example here here we have a 998 00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:42,980 so-called gyan feedback because here 999 00:58:52,150 --> 00:58:46,290 when the when they are the conditions 1000 00:58:55,820 --> 00:58:52,160 for the existence of complex life-forms 1001 00:58:59,690 --> 00:58:55,830 hey they appeal and of course they take 1002 00:59:02,210 --> 00:58:59,700 out co2 from the atmosphere for making 1003 00:59:04,700 --> 00:59:02,220 sure biomass and when they take out co2 1004 00:59:08,570 --> 00:59:04,710 from the atmosphere they even have this 1005 00:59:11,930 --> 00:59:08,580 additional forcing of weathering this 1006 00:59:16,340 --> 00:59:11,940 bittersweet and so we have a negative 1007 00:59:18,380 --> 00:59:16,350 free kick good that makes us chump so 1008 00:59:23,420 --> 00:59:18,390 this is in ours ends it's a paper we 1009 00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:23,430 also discuss its kyanite but only here 1010 00:59:32,630 --> 00:59:29,250 at this point of the new discovery of 1011 00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:32,640 super Earths seems to extend a new cost 1012 00:59:37,430 --> 00:59:35,730 of planets that could be callable on the 1013 00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:37,440 other hand as i understand that there's 1014 00:59:43,490 --> 00:59:39,690 a group out of rice who is suggested 1015 00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:43,500 that anything over 1.1 mass earth will 1016 00:59:47,900 --> 00:59:46,170 have stagnant with tectonics such as 1017 00:59:50,660 --> 00:59:47,910 venus because you cannot do plate 1018 00:59:52,460 --> 00:59:50,670 tectonics so these seem to be mutually 1019 00:59:55,300 --> 00:59:52,470 contradictory and you thought about the 1020 00:59:58,700 --> 00:59:55,310 super Earths or the effective technology 1021 01:00:02,180 --> 00:59:58,710 yes and my doctor student christine of 1022 01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:02,190 goo na ma thesis about sis and using 1023 01:00:08,690 --> 01:00:05,250 using these evolution models and i know 1024 01:00:12,260 --> 01:00:08,700 is a popular matic but as i remember the 1025 01:00:17,180 --> 01:00:12,270 group from from our of valencia in haces 1026 01:00:19,940 --> 01:00:17,190 they proposed that suppose have a more 1027 01:00:22,340 --> 01:00:19,950 probability to have plate tectonics but 1028 01:00:26,090 --> 01:00:22,350 as a nasa was a massive publication that 1029 01:00:29,910 --> 01:00:26,100 says they have no protector we cannot 1030 01:00:32,789 --> 01:00:29,920 decide for in our model we assume as 1031 01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:32,799 who else is in earls like plans was a 1032 01:00:38,220 --> 01:00:36,250 chemistry of the earth with between one 1033 01:01:04,289 --> 01:00:38,230 and ten earth masses and whisper a 1034 01:01:08,910 --> 01:01:04,299 tektronix still very controversial that 1035 01:01:13,589 --> 01:01:08,920 he's very simple and if I may add a 1036 01:01:18,089 --> 01:01:13,599 further comment choices maybe you you 1037 01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:18,099 will read in a and a astronomy and 1038 01:01:28,670 --> 01:01:22,530 astrophysics our paper on the cleazor 1039 01:01:31,859 --> 01:01:28,680 581 system yeah you know one year ago 1040 01:01:33,870 --> 01:01:31,869 surf ranch group published a paper that 1041 01:01:38,309 --> 01:01:33,880 they found a second earth in this system 1042 01:01:40,260 --> 01:01:38,319 so cleazor see planet and we we 1043 01:01:42,750 --> 01:01:40,270 investigated the system really was our 1044 01:01:45,630 --> 01:01:42,760 model of subarus found that pleases see 1045 01:01:49,890 --> 01:01:45,640 is outside so habitable zone but please 1046 01:01:51,870 --> 01:01:49,900 deal the more far away could be at the 1047 01:01:56,099 --> 01:01:51,880 outer boundary of savage episode this 1048 01:02:06,390 --> 01:01:56,109 was also reported in in in nature yeah 1049 01:02:11,260 --> 01:02:08,500 using the diagram that's on the screen 1050 01:02:13,900 --> 01:02:11,270 now perhaps producers quickly explain 1051 01:02:17,830 --> 01:02:13,910 how you parameterize the prokaryote 1052 01:02:21,510 --> 01:02:17,840 reservoir sighs for example to be 3.5 25 1053 01:02:24,940 --> 01:02:21,520 living user no no not on that exactly 1054 01:02:29,340 --> 01:02:24,950 this is safe is a parameter research 1055 01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:29,350 Hong Kong yes we we have always the same 1056 01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:31,490 parameterization it changes at this time 1057 01:02:38,650 --> 01:02:34,330 this is a disadvantage because 1058 01:02:41,710 --> 01:02:38,660 biologists told me use a c4 plants but 1059 01:02:44,310 --> 01:02:41,720 in future we may have c5 plants that 1060 01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:44,320 have for example no er limit 1061 01:02:49,450 --> 01:02:46,370 photosynthesis which is much lower than 1062 01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:49,460 send our but it is not so easy to 1063 01:02:57,220 --> 01:02:53,890 predict evolution and says are for our 1064 01:02:59,920 --> 01:02:57,230 model has always follow the whole time